Analyzing Spatial Pattern of Weather Induced Yield Variability in Indian Mustard for Formation of Homogeneous Zones in North Western Himalaya and Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

Shraddha Rawat¹*, R.K.Singh², A.S. Nain²

¹Department of Environment Science and NRM, College of Forestry, SHUATS, NAini, Allahabad, U.P, India

²Department of Agrometeorology, College of Agriculture, GBPUA and T, Pantnagar, U. S. Nagar, Uttarakhand, India.

Corresponding Author E-mail: rawatshraddha@gmail.com

DOI : http://dx.doi.org/10.12944/CARJ.6.3.07

Abstract:

Yield prediction plays an important role to decide the economy of farmer as well as the country. It avoids the under and over cropping of the particular crop. The production of not only mustard crop but all the agricultural crops is mainly affected by the weather variables. The changing weather condition affects the growth and development of crop causing intra seasonal yield variability. In addition, with weather variations, the spatial variability and crop management practices also plays a decisive role. As a result, yield forecasting represents an important tool for optimizing crop yield and to evaluate the crop-area insurance contracts. Considering yield variability and importance of rapeseed-mustard for farmers an attempt has been made to develop a homogeneous zone in respect to inter annual weather induced variability with help of this large region yield prediction could be done easily. For this study the 33 districts of erstwhile Uttar Pradesh has been selected and rapeseed-mustard data have been collected for the year 1997-2016. In this study a three steps approach has been adopted;1) the prediction of trend yield, 2) estimation of yield deviation and cluster formation and 3) mapping of the clusters in GIS and creation of homogeneous zones. Then these homogeneous zones created on basis of weather induced variability were used for yield forecasting of mustard in this region.

Keywords:

Himalaya and Plains; Indian mustard; North western; Trend yield, Weather variability; Yield prediction

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